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美元兌日圓飆至 1986 年以來最高水平

儘管美元指數 從近期高點小幅回落，但仍穩穩錨定在接近 13 個月的高位。至關重要的是，美元對日圓延續了激進的漲勢，推高美元兌日圓盤至 1986年 以來的最高交易水平（突破 162.30 關口）。

美元兌日圓飆至 1986 年以來最高水平

利差仍是核心驅動力

歐洲央行在辛特拉（Sintra）舉行的年度中央銀行政策論壇正在進行中，市場參與者正消化新任美聯準會主席凱文·沃什所釋放的鷹派基調。

對美國收益率將長期維持在高位的預期正徹底吞噬日圓，因為聯邦儲備局與持謹慎態度的日本央行 (BoJ) 之間的利率差距仍在持續擴大。

與此同時，激進的日圓做空情緒繼續令日圓匯率承壓。市場已基本消化了日本央行小幅升息的預期，而日本國債 (JGB) 收益率曲線的陡峭上升，更凸顯了這個高債務國家貨幣的結構性脆弱，使其對投資者失去吸引力。

日圓接下來的動向？

隨著美元/日圓突破數十年來的歷史性阻力位，交易員正高度警惕日本財務省 (MoF) 隨時可能實施的突發性、緊急口頭或直接進場干預。然而，從技術面來看，除非出現重大宏觀或政策意外，否則美元/日圓整體仍將維持看漲趨勢。

瞭解更多有關美元/日圓的技術分析與前景展望，請閱讀 Ultima Markets 的今日最新市場展望。

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