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疑似遭受「隱形干預」,美元/日圓暴跌近 161.00 關口

美元/日圓 盤中遭遇斷崖式下跌,在亞歐盤交接階段,匯價從接近 162.54 的數十年高點急速飆退近 1%,最低下探至 161.15 附近。這一突如其來的反轉直接終結了日圓此前的連跌勢頭,並引發了日圓空頭的集體爆倉與瘋狂回補。而在前一天,投機資金才剛將日圓推至 1986 年以來的最低水平。

日圓暴漲的背後隱藏著什麼?

引發日圓瞬間暴漲的核心催化劑是一則廣泛流傳的重磅報導。消息指出,日本財務省 (MoF) 官員正放棄以往提前口頭警告的習慣,轉而採取不預先釋放訊號的「埋伏閃擊式」隱形干預手段,旨在精準圍剿投機盤並大幅拉高做空日圓的成本。

同時,美元走軟進一步加劇了日圓的反彈勢頭。美國 6 月 ADP 私人就業人數僅錄得 9.8 萬,遠低於預期的 11.3 萬。此外,美聯準會主席凱文·沃什表示過去一個月短期通膨預期與風險有所緩和,這在一定程度上緩解了市場對美聯準會近期激進升息的極端焦慮,令市場情緒有所降溫。

日圓接下來的動向?

在技術面上,160.90–161.00 區域目前是多空雙方的關鍵分水嶺。如果美元/日圓能守住這一支撐,中期的結構性看漲趨勢依舊成立。

然而,由於美國獨立日假期,非農就業報告提前至今日(週四)重磅來襲,若就業數據再度爆冷,配合東京方面的全新隱形策略,恐引發匯價向 159.50 劇烈回撤。

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