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黃金再遭空頭襲擊;日圓飆跌至40年低點

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年6月30日

全球市場以強勁的反彈拉開了本週序幕。在納入新成分股 Alphabet 的推動下,道瓊工業指數首次收於 52,000 點上方,創下歷史新高。 與此同時,隨著市場將焦點轉向即將公布的週四非農就業數據(NFP),黃金持續遭遇逆風。美元的強勢與美債殖利率預期的上升,令金價在週二亞盤時段再度跌破 4,000 美元關口。

此外,美元兌日圓匯率突破 162.0,觸及 40 年來的最高水平。 展望今日,預計市場將繼續圍繞即將到來的非農數據進行部位調整。

雖然美股市場整體保持「看漲至盤整」的基調,但投資者仍需警惕潛在的波動。關於美股指數技術面的更多深度分析,請參閱我們之前的市場洞察報告。

黃金分析:跌勢加深

黃金無疑是今日的焦點。在殖利率預期上升、美元走強以及市場因股市高位運行而削弱避險需求的三重壓力下,黃金面臨嚴重拋壓。

XAUUSD, 日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

從長期視角看,$4,150為主要樞紐點,在此下方均被視為強勁的空頭區域。金價正持續下探 $4,000 下方; 對於波段交易者,我們建議避免「接飛刀」。在考慮做多之前,請觀察 $4,000 附近是否有跡跡象形成堅實底部。

XAUUSD, H2圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期來看,任何在 $4,050 – $4,100 區域線條下方的價格走勢均在結構上維持看跌。日內交易方面,只要金價無法重回 $4,000 關口上方,應繼續維持「逢高做空」(sell-the-rally)的策略。

白銀:緊隨黃金走弱

白銀目前正跟隨黃金的下行勢頭,難以維持技術支撐。作為高貝塔金屬,白銀對當前的殖利率壓力高度敏感。如果黃金進一步走弱,白銀的跌幅恐將加劇。長遠來看,只要貴金屬板塊整體承壓,我們對白銀維持看跌立場。

XAGUSD, H2圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

技術上,目前 $60.00 – $62.00 下方的區域處於下行波段。隨著白銀無法收復該水平,短期前景依然看跌,金價極有可能向下一個主要支撐位 $54.00 邁進。

美元兌日圓:日圓疲態難改,刷新40年新低

儘管日本央行此前進行了加息,但受美日利差持續擴大的影響,日圓跌勢未止。加之市場對日本債務問題的擔憂,投資者依然堅定看空日圓。儘管干預風險始終存在,但市場目前暫時選擇了「無視」。

USDJPY, H4圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

在突破 161.80 的關鍵阻力位(2024年高點)後,匯價保持強勁的上升動能。交易員應關注日線或 4 小時 K 線是否能穩固於 162.00 上方以確認動能延續。 請注意,若跌回 161.80 下方,可能預示著假突破,並導致短期回調。

風險提示:可順勢參與突破行情,但務必嚴控風險。 儘管我們對 USDJPY 堅定看漲,但官方干預仍是多頭面臨的短期威脅。

市場總結

金融市場目前正處於「非農前夕的部位調整期」。Alphabet加入道指為藍籌股注入了強勁動力,推動指數刷新 52,000 點的歷史高位。然而,這種樂觀情緒並未蔓延至貴金屬市場。強勢美元與美債殖利率攀セン的雙重擠壓,迫使黃金和白銀紛紛跌破關鍵心理關口。投資者需為後續勞動力市場數據帶來的波動提前做好風險管理。

今日關注焦點

  • 非農前奏:市場正積極為週四的重磅數據進行部位調整,需警惕債市殖利率與匯率的突發性劇烈波動。
  • 黃金走勢:密切關注 $4,000 關口。若金價未能重回該位上方,本週看跌趨勢恐將延續。
  • 日圓干預風險:儘管市場暫時無視干預風險,但任何來自日本官方的口頭干預警告都可能引發匯率急劇波動。

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本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料僅供參考,旨在幫助讀者了解市場形勢,並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施確保資料的准確性,但不能保證資料的絕對准確性,並可能隨時更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets對于因直接或間接使用或依賴此類資料而可能導致的任何損失或虧損(包括但不限于利潤損失)不承擔責任。

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