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非農數據不及預期;資金出現大輪動

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年7月3日

就業市場降溫,聯準會升息預期轉向

美國就業市場在 6 月遭遇重大逆風。昨日公布的非農就業報告(NFP)顯示,6 月僅新增就業 5.7 萬人,遠低於 11.3 萬人的市場共識預期。

更令人擔憂的是,失業率降至 4.2%,這並非源於招聘強勁,而是因為勞動力參與率急劇下降,導致勞動力人口萎縮了 72 萬,勞動力參與率跌至 61.5% 的歷史低位(疫情期間除外)。

對此,期貨市場已大幅下調了升息預期。根據 CME 聯準會觀察工具(FedWatch),9 月升息的機率已從報告前的 66% 降至約 51%。

聯準會利率預期 | 來源:CME FedWatch

這一變化標誌著此前推動美元反彈的「鷹派」情緒出現了劇烈逆轉。匯市與股市同步出現明顯輪動。

美元分析:短期看跌反轉

非農報告後,美元指數(DXY)跌破 101.00 關口;從技術面上看,趨勢已轉向短期看跌反轉。

DXY, H4圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

DXY, H4圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

此前作為支撐的 100.80–101.00 區域現已轉化為阻力區。該指數目前正瞄準 100.00 作為下一個主要支撐位。若美元持續承壓且未能收復 100.80 區域,預計將進一步回調至 100.00 水平。

歐元/美元:看漲反轉得到確認

正如早前分析,美元走軟為歐元/美元的看漲反轉鋪平了道路。成功突破 1.1400–1.1430 的阻力區間確認了這一短期看漲轉向。隨著美元持續承壓,我們預計歐元將進一步走強。

EURUSD, H2圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

EURUSD, H2圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期內,關注 1.14300 – 1.13800 的震盪區間突破(以及 1.1400 的整數關口支撐)。 如果 1.14300 的支撐位能夠經受住回測考驗並驗證突破有效,預計歐元/美元短期內將迎來進一步的看漲反轉。

黃金:$4,000 關口築底成功

隨著金價突破 $4,100 的阻力位,黃金此前對 $4,000 關口的「防衛戰」宣告成功,黃金目前正測試 $4,200 區域。這可被視為看漲反轉訊號。

XAUUSD, H2圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD, H2圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

雖然短期前景日益看漲,但日內交易者應警惕在 $4,200 阻力位附近出現的獲利回吐回調。若出現調整,$4,100 現已成為主要支撐位。

策略: 關注 $4,200 阻力位的短期回調做空機會,或在 $4,100 支撐附近企穩時尋求做多入場點。

納斯達克 100 指數:科技股承壓

非農報告引發了劇烈的板塊輪動。儘管道瓊工業指數創下歷史新高,但以科技股為主的納斯達克 100 指數受挫,下跌 1.79%,原因是人工智慧和半導體股票遭遇獲利回吐。投資者顯然正在從高成長科技股轉向防禦性藍籌股。

短期內,只要納指維持在 30,000 點下方,預計將繼續面臨壓力。

NAS100, H4圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期納指已形成收斂三角形,暗示投資者處於觀望狀態。儘管 30,000 點下方存在壓力,但近期的收斂三角形形態也表明投資者並未真正對科技板塊看空。該指數的前景仍保持謹慎看漲,交易者應密切關注區間內的短期價格波動。

市場總結

昨晚公布的美國 6 月非農就業報告大幅不及預期,非農就業人數僅錄得 5.7 萬,遠低於 11.3 萬的預期。這一疲軟數據導致市場對聯準會 9 月升息的預期大幅降溫,FedWatch 工具顯示利率維持不變的機率已升至 46.8%。

與此同時,市場出現了明顯的板塊輪動:資金從人工智慧和半導體等高成長科技板塊撤出,流向藍籌股。納斯達克 100 指數大跌 1.79%,而道瓊指數則創下新高,顯示出投資者情緒的防禦性轉向。

今日,預計市場將繼續消化非農數據帶來的影響,價格走勢料將跟隨技術面指引。

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