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道指首破 53,000 點;納指上行承壓

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年7月7日

淡靜市場與技術面博弈

繼非農數據發布後的市場勢頭,美國股市週一收盤時表現強勁。道瓊工業平均指數創下歷史里程碑,首次收於 53,000 點上方。雖然納斯達克 100 指數也有所反彈,但由於接近關鍵技術阻力位,其上行勢頭目前受到抑制。

儘管有上述走勢,週一的市場仍相對平淡,大盤整體交投清淡。由於缺乏重大的宏觀數據發布,市場目前缺乏新的基本面催化劑。

因此,交易仍由關鍵技術水平和持續的板塊輪動所驅動。我們預計今日市場將繼續聚焦於技術面表現,並靜待本週後續可能出現的更多催化劑。

美國指數技術面展望

雖然道瓊指數創下 53,000 點的亮眼漲幅,但個股科技股因獲利回吐而出現回調。我們看到明顯的板塊輪動,預計這種趨勢將持續,導致對科技板塊權重較大的標普 500 指數和納斯達克 100 指數產生短期壓力。

標普 500:測試三角形形態

該指數目前處於收斂三角形形態中。交易者應觀察是否會出現決定性的突破或在這些水平出現區間拒絕。

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

從技術上看,該指數已重回 7,500 點水平。關注此支撐位能否守住,以及收斂三角形形態是否向上突破。

如果指數未能守住 7,500 點,則可能維持寬幅盤整;反之,若 7,500 點支撐有效,我們可能會看到其向歷史高點邁進。

納斯達克 100:30,000 點下方承壓

納斯達克 100 指數仍困在技術結構中,30,000 – 29,700 區間是關鍵壓力點。

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

除了收斂三角形區間外,該指數可能繼續面臨 30,000 點下方的壓力。科技板塊仍存在回調風險。 隨著板塊輪動持續向價值股傾斜,除非能明確突破 30,000 點的上限,否則上行空間可能受限。短期交易者應繼續關注收斂三角形區間和 30,000 點的心理關口。

大宗商品與外匯展望

黃金:回調準備

在近期反彈之後,隨著市場鞏固收益,預計黃金今日將出現進一步回調。

XAUUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

4,100 – 4,050 美元區域現已確立為主要支撐位。我們將密切監控該區域,觀察其能否守住以維持看漲結構。如前所述,4,200 美元仍是可能暫時限制上行的主要阻力位。對於日內展望,請關注 4,100 – 4,050 美元支撐位附近的逢低買入機會。

歐元/美元:看漲結構保持完整

在外匯對方面,由於近期美元勢頭減弱,歐元/美元成為焦點。隨著歐元/美元反彈,該貨幣對目前保持看漲反轉結構,支撐位穩固在 1.1400 以上。

EURUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

EURUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

雖然受美元穩定性影響,上行空間目前受限,但只要 1.1400 支撐位保持,技術前景依然樂觀。該貨幣對的下一個重要走勢將高度依賴於美元的整體方向。

市場總結

美股延續了非農後的樂觀情緒,道瓊工業平均指數首次收於 53,000 點上方,創下歷史新高。相比之下,納斯達克 100 指數雖有上漲,但因接近關鍵技術阻力位,上行空間受限。

昨日市場整體交投清淡,缺乏宏觀數據指引,這種趨勢預計將在今日持續。市場目前處於盤整階段,隨著板塊輪動持續影響股市走勢,投資者應繼續關注關鍵支撐位和阻力位的技術演變。

免責聲明

本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料僅供參考,旨在幫助讀者了解市場形勢,並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施確保資料的准確性,但不能保證資料的絕對准確性,並可能隨時更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets對于因直接或間接使用或依賴此類資料而可能導致的任何損失或虧損(包括但不限于利潤損失)不承擔責任。

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